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Psycho-Sociological Model of Vote Buying and Political Stability in Indonesia

6 September 2025   16:58 Diperbarui: 6 September 2025   16:58 111
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Quantifies psychological, social, and systemic interactions.

Demonstrates path-dependent, non-linear outcomes using rigorous mathematical formalism.

Provides a predictive framework capable of informing both scholarly analysis and policy design.

TDD thus represents a paradigm shift, offering an integrative approach to understanding democratic degradation that combines insight from multiple disciplines into a coherent, testable model.

The TDD framework advances political science by showing that complex democratic phenomena emerge from interactions between individual psychology, social norms, and systemic structures, and that these dynamics can be formalized mathematically. It establishes a foundation for future research, offering both explanatory depth and predictive capability, and underscores the importance of integrating interdisciplinary perspectives to address transactional politics and democratic erosion.

C. Predictive and Normative Utility for Emerging Democracies

The Transactional Degradation of Democracy (TDD) framework provides both predictive and normative value for emerging democracies, where transactional politics, vote buying, and weak institutional accountability are prevalent. Its contributions in these contexts can be summarized as follows:

1. Predictive Utility

By formalizing micro-, meso-, and macro-level interactions, TDD allows simulation of electoral and political dynamics under varying conditions of incentives () and perceived justice ().

Numerical simulations reveal critical thresholds beyond which small changes in voter rationalization or legislative behavior can precipitate systemic bifurcations, leading to either authoritarian drift or anarchic instability.

This predictive capacity enables policymakers, electoral commissions, and civil society organizations to anticipate potential democratic crises and intervene proactively before tipping points are reached.

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