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Psycho-Sociological Model of Vote Buying and Political Stability in Indonesia

6 September 2025   16:58 Diperbarui: 6 September 2025   16:58 111
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Legislative behavior (Ap) escalates, as politicians rationalize neglect of campaign promises.

Macro-level: Democratic degradation (D) reaches near 0.85, signaling substantial erosion of legitimacy.

System stability (S) remains positive (S=0.3), indicating drift toward authoritarian consolidation.

Interpretation: High incentives relative to perceived justice create passive compliance, reinforcing hierarchical control and entrenched transactional politics.

3. Scenario 2: Low Incentive, High Perceived Justice (U=0.2,J=0.8U = 0.2, J = 0.8U=0.2,J=0.8)

Micro-level: Voter rationalization (ArA_rAr) remains low (<0.3), indicating resistance to transactional behavior.
Legislative behavior (ApA_pAp) is constrained, as politicians face ethical expectations and limited compliance.
Macro-level: Democratic degradation (DDD) stabilizes at ~0.25, reflecting relatively intact democratic norms.
System stability (SSS) becomes negative (S0.2S \approx -0.2S0.2), signaling potential unrest or mobilization for reform.
Interpretation: Low material inducements combined with high justice perception empower citizens to resist transactional pressures, potentially destabilizing entrenched but unethical political practices.

4. Scenario 3: Moderate Incentive and Justice (U=0.5,J=0.5U = 0.5, J = 0.5U=0.5,J=0.5)

The system exhibits non-linear dynamics with oscillatory behavior in ArA_rAr and ApA_pAp, reflecting feedback loops between voter compliance, legislative rationalization, and social norms.
Democratic degradation (DDD) fluctuates between 0.4 and 0.6, while system stability (SSS) hovers near zero.
This scenario corresponds to a critical bifurcation region, where small changes in incentives or justice can dramatically shift the system toward either authoritarian drift or social unrest.
5. Implications of Simulation

The simulations confirm the sensitive dependence of political outcomes on the relative magnitude of monetary incentives (UUU) and perceived justice (JJJ).

Critical thresholds exist where systemic feedback loops amplify micro-level rationalizations into macro-level degradation.

The TDD framework provides predictive insight, showing how policy interventions (e.g., increasing transparency, enhancing justice perception, or reducing transactional incentives) can alter long-term trajectories of democratic stability.

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