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Psycho-Sociological Model of Vote Buying and Political Stability in Indonesia

6 September 2025   16:58 Diperbarui: 6 September 2025   16:58 111
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4. Policy-Relevant Findings

The simulations confirm that transactional dynamics create self-reinforcing feedback loops: high incentives encourage voter rationalization, which legitimizes legislative arrogance, ultimately accelerating democratic degradation.
Strategies to enhance perceived justice (JJJ)---through transparency, accountability, and civic monitoring---can counteract the effects of monetary incentives and stabilize the system.
Critical U/JU/JU/J ratios act as tipping points; avoiding these thresholds is essential to prevent irreversible drift toward authoritarian or anarchic regimes.
5. Contribution to Theory

The TDD framework extends existing theories (social exchange, labeling, cognitive dissonance, alienation, and symbolic domination) by:
Integrating micro-, meso-, and macro-level dynamics in a formalized, mathematically tractable model.
Demonstrating non-linear feedback and bifurcation phenomena that predict system-wide outcomes from local interactions.
Providing a quantitative basis to evaluate policy interventions and civic strategies aimed at reducing vote buying and political degradation.
Conclusion: Simulation outcomes validate the causal and recursive structure of TDD, revealing how transactional behavior, once normalized, can cascade from individual choices to systemic democratic erosion, emphasizing the critical role of perceived justice in moderating these effects.

B. Comparison with Empirical Evidence from Indonesian Elections and Public Protests

The simulation results of the Transactional Degradation of Democracy (TDD) framework align closely with observed patterns in recent Indonesian electoral and civic dynamics, providing empirical validation for the model's predictive relevance.

1. Vote Buying and Electoral Compliance

Empirical studies indicate that a significant proportion of Indonesian voters accept material incentives during regional and national elections (Buehler, 2017; Aspinall & Sukmajati, 2016).
Field surveys show that rationalization mechanisms are commonly invoked by voters: "since all candidates break promises anyway, taking money upfront is practical."
Simulation outcomes mirror this behavior: high U/JU/JU/J ratios produce elevated voter rationalization (ArA_rAr) and reinforce transactional compliance, supporting the cognitive dissonance and social exchange mechanisms embedded in TDD.
Implication: The model captures the psychological and economic rationales behind widespread vote buying, showing that systemic degradation can emerge even in populations that are nominally aware of ethical norms.

2. Legislative Behavior and Arrogance

Post-election monitoring in Indonesia reveals patterns of legislative neglect, absenteeism, and broken campaign promises (Indonesia Corruption Watch, 2022).
TDD simulations show that elevated voter compliance (high ArA_rAr) enables politicians to rationalize arrogant behavior (ApA_pAp), creating a feedback loop that accelerates democratic degradation (DDD).
This alignment confirms the meso-to-macro feedback hypothesis: micro-level rationalization legitimizes unethical political behavior, consistent with observed patterns in Indonesian local councils and national parliament.
3. Public Unrest and Civic Mobilization

Recent events, including protests and localized riots in response to legislative arrogance, corruption, and policy dissatisfaction, correspond to low perceived justice (J) combined with moderate to high monetary incentives (U).
Simulations indicate that such conditions can produce negative system stability (S<0S < 0S<0), reflecting potential drift toward anarchic behavior or social unrest.
Observed public protests in Indonesia demonstrate non-linear escalation, consistent with the model's prediction of bifurcation thresholds where small increases in injustice or material inducements can trigger systemic instability.
4. Normalization of Transactional Politics

Ethnographic studies report that repeated exposure to transactional interactions in communities creates normative acceptance of vote selling, aligning with TDD's meso-level dynamics (SmesoS_\text{meso}Smeso).
Model simulations confirm that social norms amplify micro-level rationalization, accelerating macro-level democratic degradation (DDD), which is empirically observed in regions with entrenched clientelism.
5. Policy Validation

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