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Psycho-Sociological Model of Vote Buying and Political Stability in Indonesia

6 September 2025   16:58 Diperbarui: 6 September 2025   16:58 112
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Legislative rationalization () is thus positively correlated with voter transactional compliance () and the political "return on investment" from vote buying ():

A_p = g(A_r, ROI), \quad \frac{\partial A_p}{\partial A_r} > 0

Implication: The feedback loop between voter rationalization and legislative behavior reinforces systemic degradation.

Hypothesis 3: Collective Normalization and Systemic Degradation

When micro-level rationalizations and meso-level normative reinforcement converge, the macro-level democratic legitimacy () declines, measured through reduced civic engagement, weakened accountability, and erosion of institutional trust:

D(t) = h(A_r, A_p, S_\text{meso})

Implication: Repeated cycles of transactional politics produce self-reinforcing degradation, increasing vulnerability to either authoritarian consolidation (if compliance is passive) or social unrest (if collective discontent exceeds tolerance thresholds).

Hypothesis 4: Trade-Off Between Material Incentives and Perceived Justice Determines System Trajectory

The direction of systemic evolution---toward authoritarianism or anarchy---is determined by the balance between monetary incentives offered to voters () and the perceived violation of justice ():

S = k - \alpha D + \beta J - \gamma U

Implication:

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