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Psycho-Sociological Model of Vote Buying and Political Stability in Indonesia

6 September 2025   16:58 Diperbarui: 6 September 2025   16:58 111
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Bifurcation diagrams depict critical thresholds of U/JU/JU/J ratios where small changes induce abrupt shifts in system stability (SSS).
Key insight: The system exhibits hysteresis, meaning that once authoritarian consolidation or anarchic drift occurs, returning to a stable democratic trajectory requires disproportionately larger interventions in justice perception (JJJ) or reduction of incentives (UUU).
5. Policy and Strategic Implications

Visualizations highlight "safe zones" of U/JU/JU/J ratios where democratic stability is preserved.
Policymakers can use these insights to prioritize:
Reducing monetary inducements in elections (anti-vote-buying campaigns)
Strengthening perceived justice via accountability, transparency, and civic engagement
Citizens and civil society organizations can also monitor early warning signals, identifying trajectories that could lead to authoritarian drift or societal unrest.

VI. Results and Discussion

A. Interpretation of Simulation Outcomes

The numerical simulations and visualizations of the Transactional Degradation of Democracy (TDD) framework provide insightful interpretations of the dynamic interplay between voter rationalization, legislative behavior, and systemic political outcomes in contexts such as Indonesia, where transactional politics is prevalent.

1. Micro-Level Insights: Voter Rationalization (ArA_rAr)

Simulation results indicate that monetary incentives (UUU) are the primary driver of voter compliance, while perceived justice (JJJ) serves as a moderating factor.
High UUU relative to JJJ produces rapid increases in ArA_rAr, confirming the cognitive dissonance hypothesis: citizens reconcile ethical discomfort by rationalizing transactional behavior.
Low U/JU/JU/J ratios maintain low levels of rationalization, supporting the idea that reinforcing justice perception can reduce susceptibility to vote buying.
Implication: Micro-level rationalizations are not isolated choices; they are tightly coupled with perceived fairness and material context.

2. Meso-Level Insights: Social Norm Reinforcement (SmesoS_\text{meso}Smeso)

Oscillatory behavior observed in medium U/JU/JU/J scenarios highlights the role of social networks and community norms in amplifying or dampening transactional behavior.
Communities exposed to repeated transactional interactions develop normative acceptance, further accelerating systemic degradation.
Conversely, communities with strong civic expectations resist normalization, buffering against democratic erosion.
Implication: Community-level interventions, such as civic education and monitoring, can modulate meso-level feedback loops, stabilizing democratic processes.

3. Macro-Level Insights: Democratic Degradation (DDD) and System Stability (SSS)

High U/JU/JU/J ratios produce rapid macro-level degradation, characterized by reduced institutional trust, legislative non-compliance, and citizen disengagement.
The system demonstrates non-linear thresholds: small changes in incentives or justice perception can lead to bifurcations toward either authoritarian consolidation (S>0S > 0S>0) or anarchic drift (S<0S < 0S<0).
Moderate U/JU/JU/J ratios exhibit oscillatory instability, representing critical bifurcation regions where early intervention can prevent systemic collapse.
Implication: Macro-level trajectories are path-dependent and sensitive to initial conditions, highlighting the importance of preventive policy measures.

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