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Psycho-Sociological Model of Vote Buying and Political Stability in Indonesia

6 September 2025   16:58 Diperbarui: 6 September 2025   16:58 112
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V. Numerical Simulations

A. Parameter Selection Based on Empirical Data from Indonesia

To ensure the realism and relevance of the numerical simulations of the Transactional Degradation of Democracy (TDD) framework, parameter values were calibrated using empirical data derived from Indonesia's recent political landscape, including studies on vote buying, clientelism, and public trust in political institutions.

1. Monetary Incentive (U)

Source of Data: Reports from Indonesia's General Elections Commission (KPU), survey studies on vote buying prevalence (Buehler, 2017; Aspinall & Sukmajati, 2016), and field studies on electoral transactions.

Observed Range: Approximately 20%--80% of respondents report being offered material incentives in regional or national elections.

Parameter Selection: For simulations, was normalized to a scale of 0--1, where represents minimal exposure to vote buying and represents widespread exposure.

2. Perceived Justice (J)

Source of Data: Surveys from the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI) and the Indonesian Political Indicator (IPI) measuring public trust in legislators and perceived fulfillment of campaign promises.

Observed Range: Public perception of justice and accountability ranged between 0.25 (low trust) and 0.75 (moderate trust).

Parameter Selection: was normalized from 0 (complete distrust) to 1 (full perceived justice), consistent with survey results in high-transactional regions.

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