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Psycho-Sociological Model of Vote Buying and Political Stability in Indonesia

6 September 2025   16:58 Diperbarui: 6 September 2025   16:58 112
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3. Cognitive Dissonance (D)

Source of Data: Derived indirectly from qualitative interviews and focus group studies on voter justification of accepting money in elections (Festinger, 1957; Hicken, 2011).

Observed Range: Moderate baseline dissonance reported, as voters rationalize taking incentives despite ethical concerns.

Parameter Selection: Set at for baseline simulations, representing consistent psychological tension influencing rationalization.

4. Legislative Rationalization (Ap) and Social Norm Reinforcement (Smeso)

Source of Data: Analysis of legislative behavior post-election (percentage of unfulfilled promises, absenteeism, and reported arrogance in office) and ethnographic studies on community norms regarding vote buying.

Parameter Selection: Ap initialized at 0.1, Smeso set at 0.3, capturing the early-stage emergence of systemic normalization.

5. Sensitivity Coefficients ((i,i,i,i\alpha_i, \beta_i, \gamma_i, \delta_ii,i,i,i))

Source of Data: Estimated using regression analysis and scaling from empirical studies of transactional politics in Indonesia.

Parameter Rationale: Coefficients were chosen to reflect the relative responsiveness of voters and politicians to incentives, justice perception, and social norms. For instance alpha1>alpha2, indicates that monetary incentives have a stronger immediate effect on voter rationalization than perceived justice.

6. Validation of Parameter Choices

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