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Leadership Parameters and Bifurcation of Political Unrest: a Mathematical Formalism with Cases Study

16 September 2025   14:54 Diperbarui: 16 September 2025   14:54 82
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1. Consensus-Building Capacity (C)
Definition: The ability of leaders to mediate conflicts, forge compromises, and include diverse societal actors in policymaking.

Normalization: C = 0 represents total exclusionary politics, while C = 1 reflects highly inclusive and participatory governance.

2. Legitimacy and Public Trust (L)
Definition: The degree of acceptance of leadership by the governed, grounded in perceived fairness, transparency, and historical credibility.

Normalization: L = 0 implies no legitimacy (pervasive distrust), while L = 1 implies universal trust and acceptance.

3. Crisis Management Effectiveness (M)
Definition: The competence of leaders in addressing sudden shocks such as natural disasters, pandemics, or political scandals.

Normalization: M = 0 denotes ineffectiveness and paralysis, while M = 1 denotes rapid, coordinated, and effective responses.

4. Narrative and Communication Control (N)
Definition: The capacity to frame political discourse, shape public perception, and dominate narratives through media and rhetoric.

Normalization: N = 0 indicates fragmented communication and loss of narrative control, while N = 1 indicates strong, coherent, and persuasive messaging.

5. Economic Governance and Stability (G)
Definition: The leader's ability to maintain macroeconomic stability, ensure growth, and mitigate inequalities that drive discontent.

Normalization: G = 0 signals economic mismanagement, while G = 1 reflects robust and equitable economic stewardship.

6. Elite Management and Coalition Maintenance (E_c)
Definition: The ability to manage political elites, prevent defection, and maintain coalition discipline in support of the regime.

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