(c) Damping of economic stress .
Economic governance and crisis management accelerate recovery:
\lambda_E(G,M) \;=\; \lambda_{0} \;+\; \lambda_{G}\,G \;+\; \lambda_{M}\,M,
\qquad \lambda_{0}>0,\ \lambda_G,\lambda_M\ge0.
(d) Trust recovery amplitude and narrative / crisis weightings.
We set
\alpha_T>0,\qquad \text{and}\qquad \alpha_T(L,N,M) \equiv \alpha_T\, (L + \sigma_N N + \sigma_M M),
(e) Repression backfire coefficient.
The term encodes that the more repressive the regime (smaller ), the larger the trust erosion per unit protest (backfire). .
(f) Protest suppression by trust and cooptation.
sets how strongly trust reduces protest. sets the strength of suppression from elite cooptation ; if repression is used in combination with cooptation, K may be large short term but lead to long-term increases in grievance; this trade-off is captured when calibrating and the dependence of other coefficients on .
(g) Black-horse growth terms.
respectively measure sensitivity of to protest, economic stress, trust, and elite cohesion. For example, is large when elite management strongly prevents outsider leader formation.
5. Interpretation of coefficient dependence on leadership parameters
For transparency we give explicit example mappings (linear monotonic maps, to be adapted empirically):
\begin{aligned}
