4. Numerical Simulations
Parameter calibration for Soeharto, SBY, Jokowi, Prabowo.
Bifurcation diagrams (P* vs _E).
Sensitivity analysis: how legitimacy, narrative, and repression shift _crit.
Simulation of black horse emergence (H).
5. Case Study: Indonesia
Soeharto: high consolidation, low legitimacy abrupt tipping.
SBY: high legitimacy, moderate coalition resilient.
Jokowi: strong narrative, elite cooptation stable until sudden shift.
Prabowo: low legitimacy, high repression low _crit, unstable under shocks.
6. Discussion
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