2. Operational prescriptions (what to do)
A. Communication (rapid, transparent, two-way)
Immediate actions:
Publish a clear, itemized relief plan within 48--72 hours; include timelines and measurable KPIs. (Increases UU credibility raises TT.)
Release interim findings of any investigations (e.g., into incidents) to reduce rumor-driven \xi amplitude.
Medium-term:
Open multi-stakeholder dialogue channels (community leaders, labor reps, youth orgs) to co-create policy adjustments (reduces H\beta_H by incorporating grievances).
Launch a rapid-response fact-checking unit and a transparency portal for budget reallocations.
Key metrics:
Lag-1 autocorrelation of trust-index (target: no upward drift); misinformation spread rate (mentions/hour); message penetration and sentiment ratios.
B. Economic policy (fast relief + credible reform)
Immediate actions:
Targeted emergency transfers to most vulnerable households; prioritized cash-for-work in damaged areas (reduces EE quickly, lowering SES_E conversion to PP).
Temporary moratoria or subsidies on key staples and transport to stabilize prices.
Medium-term:
Announce a transparent review of the controversial salary/tunjangan decision with clear criteria for revision or delay (reduces perceived unfairness and HH fuel).
Launch visible programs that generate employment quickly (public works, SME grants) to raise RR.
Key metrics:
Short-term change in CPI food component; unemployment claim trends; fraction of relief delivered within target window; Gini or ex-post distributional measures.
C. Political legitimacy (procedural fairness & accountability)
Immediate actions:
Fast, visibly independent investigation into any police or state actor misconduct; involve independent bodies (Komnas HAM, Ombudsman) to increase perceived impartiality.
Temporary suspension or transparent review of implicated officials where credible evidence exists (signals accountability).
Medium-term:
Commit to institutional reforms that increase parliamentary transparency (real-time budget dashboard, public hearings) to reduce systemic grievances that feed HH.
Empower local governance (decentralized relief execution) to demonstrate responsiveness.
Key metrics:
Trust index trajectories; approval of investigative processes; number and timeliness of accountability actions; independent audit ratings.
3. Interaction effects and leverage logic
Speed Credibility is multiplicative. A fast relief package that is perceived as corrupt or opaque has far less effect on TT than a slower but transparent and auditable one. In model terms, UU\eta_U U is modulated by a credibility multiplier ccomm[0,1]c_{\text{comm}}\in[0,1]. Thus maximize both speed and transparency.
Coercion backfire channel. Heavy coercion (K\mathcal{K}) reduces PP short-term via K\gamma_{\mathcal{K}} but erodes TT via K\eta_{\mathcal{K}}, which can increase future PP and HH. Therefore coercive actions must be narrowly targeted, legally grounded, and accompanied by transparency/investigation to keep net K\eta_{\mathcal{K}} minimal.
Narrative substitution. When economic policy addresses material grievances but communication fails, an adversarial narrative can allow a black-horse actor to reframe actions as token. Therefore economic measures must be communicated in terms that resonate with affected demographics.
4. Tactical sequencing (recommended order of operations)
a. Stabilize information space: release facts, acknowledge legitimate grievances, publicly announce immediate relief steps. (reduces \sigma, increases TT marginally)
b. Deliver visible relief fast: disburse the first tranche within pre-announced short window; measure delivery publicly. (reduces EE, increases UU credibility)
c. Open independent inquiries: show that abuses will be transparently investigated. (prevents growth of HH; increases 0\eta_0)
d. Limit coercion to surgical security operations: explicitly prohibit disproportionate force and require body cams/oversight to avoid K\eta_{\mathcal{K}} escalation.
e. Engage political interlocutors: convene cross-party, civil-society forums to co-design medium-term reforms (reduces polarization PP structurally).
This sequencing is chosen to minimize the probability of noise-induced tipping while enlarging the basin of attraction of the stable equilibrium.
5. Monitoring and feedback (dashboard items mapped to policy levers)
