High interconnectivity (dense network W) lowers the effective threshold for cascade (smaller E\theta_E).
Heterogeneous resilience R_i leads to localized tipping that can spill over; watch gateway nodes (transport hubs, media centers).
Operational implication: prioritize stabilizing high-centrality nodes (Jakarta, Surabaya, Medan) to contain national cascades.
6. Policy thresholds & trigger rules mapped to phases
Translate model diagnostics into concrete triggers:
Green (Containment) --- EWI < 0.3, r^t<rc\hat r_t < r_c - \epsilon: continue routine relief & targeted communication.
Amber (Fragile) --- EWI in [0.3,0.6], r^t\hat r_t near rcr_c: escalate visible relief, open mediated dialogues, limit large-scale coercion.
Red (Transition likely) --- EWI > 0.6, r^t>rc\hat r_t > r_c, MFPT < 14 days: emergency mode---rapid, large-scale relief + precision security; prepare contingency governance plans.
Selection of thresholds (0.3/0.6) is calibratable to risk appetite and backtesting.
7. From diagnosis to intervention: shifting basins
If diagnostics show drift toward Basin B, interventions should aim to:
Move control parameters away from bifurcation: increase U\rho_U (speed/visibility of accommodation), reduce K\rho_{\mathcal{K}} (limit sweeping repression), thus lowering rr.
Reduce economic stress EE by immediate targeted transfers, price stabilization measures, and supply-chain fixes (attenuate SES_E).
Raise trust TT through independent investigations (transparency), credible accountability for abuse, and inclusive dialogue.
Suppress HH formation via engagement with nascent networks, neutralizing misinformation, and offering legitimate channels for grievances.
Combined, these shift the state back into the attraction basin of containment and raise resilience RR.
8. Monitoring, iteration, and model updating
