ESEP+PEE \xrightarrow{S_E} P \xrightarrow{+\phi_P} E.
Interpretation: supply chain disruption and precautionary behavior during protests raise prices and job risk, which feed back into further protests.
R2: Unrest Trust Erosion Unrest
PPT(1T)PP \xrightarrow{-\eta_P} T \xrightarrow{(1-T)} P.
Interpretation: visible contention reduces institutional legitimacy; low TT heightens the conversion of stress into protests.
R3: Turbulence Black Horse Mobilization
{P,E}+P,+EH+HP\{P,E\} \xrightarrow{+\alpha_P,+\alpha_E} H \xrightarrow{+\beta_H} P.
Interpretation: outsider narratives gain traction in turbulence; the resulting focal leadership raises mobilization efficiency.
R4: Coercion Backfire
KKT(1T)P\mathcal{K} \xrightarrow{-\eta_{\mathcal{K}}} T \xrightarrow{(1-T)} P.
Interpretation: coercion suppresses protests directly but erodes trust; at low TT the net loop can be self-reinforcing.
2) Core balancing loops (stabilizing)
B1: Trust Dampening
TTPT \xrightarrow{-\gamma_T} P.
High trust reduces the yield of stress into unrest and accelerates protest decay.
B2: Relief--Trust--Resilience
U+UT+TRP,EU \xrightarrow{+\eta_U} T \xrightarrow{+\rho_T} R \xrightarrow{-} P,E.
Effective social protection raises trust and system resilience, lowering both protests and stress.
