2. The emergence of a "black horse"---an unexpected political force---becomes more probable near critical thresholds.
3. Scenario simulations reveal three possible futures: gradual recovery, cyclical unrest, or chaotic realignment of power structures.
The framework highlights actionable insights for policymakers: implement real-time monitoring of state variables, strengthen communication and legitimacy, and integrate agent-based modeling with machine learning for adaptive forecasting. By doing so, Indonesia can navigate its current crisis and build long-term institutional resilience against future systemic shocks.
Outline
1. Introduction
Context of Indonesia's current unrest
Importance of predictive socio-political modeling
Relevance of bifurcation and complex systems approach
2. Theoretical Framework
Complex adaptive systems in political dynamics
Bifurcation theory and critical transitions
Definition of key state variables (T, E, P, H, U, R)
3. Mathematical Model Formulation
System of nonlinear differential equations
Interaction structure and feedback loops
Stochastic shocks and parameter sensitivity
4. Simulation & Predictive Scenarios
