2. Two illustrative baseline outcomes
From ensembles run with the above priors we expect to see two robust classes of outcomes:
(i) Gradual Recovery (Stabilization) --- "Containment" attractor
Conditions that produce this trajectory
Rapid and sincere accommodative action: high U\rho_U in practice (quick cash transfers, visible budget reallocations, meaningful policy reversals).
Low-to-moderate use of coercive measures (moderate K\rho_{\mathcal{K}}) that are surgical rather than sweeping.
Effective communications reducing information noise (lower effective \sigma).
Characteristic dynamics
E(t)E(t) falls over 2--6 weeks as relief takes effect.
T(t)T(t) rebounds slowly, crossing 0.5 within 30--60 days if relief is credible.
P(t)P(t) shows a sharp early peak (from shocks) followed by exponential-like decay; median P30P_{30} across the ensemble < 0.10.
H(t)H(t) remains suppressed (rarely crosses HcH_c); probability that H>HcH>H_c within 90 days < 10%.
Probabilistic summary (example)
Pr(Major escalation: P>Pc within 30 days)8%\Pr(\text{Major escalation: } P>P_c \text{ within 30 days}) \approx 8\%
Pr(H>Hc within 90 days)6%\Pr(H>H_c \text{ within 90 days}) \approx 6\%
Policy implication: Prioritise speed and visibility of UU --- rapid disbursal and credible monitoring of outcomes. Communication must aim to rebuild TT.
(ii) Escalation (Destabilizing) --- "Low-Trust" attractor
Conditions that produce this trajectory
