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Adaptive Relational Zoning: a CAS Framework for Modelling Strategic Social Interaction

13 Juni 2025   13:09 Diperbarui: 13 Juni 2025   19:29 370
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Traditional sociometric models emphasize structure---nodes (individuals) and ties (relations)---and measure properties like degree centrality, betweenness, and closeness to understand influence and connectivity. ARZ builds on this by introducing a temporal and qualitative extension: relational zones (white, green, yellow, red, black, and "clear") are not merely static tie strengths but behavioral gradients that reflect trust asymmetry, emotional residue, utilitarian calculus, and moral judgment. Each tie is enriched with metadata representing interactional valence, emotional tone, and adaptive coefficients.

Sociometrics traditionally assumes either binary or scalar values to represent relations (e.g., +1 for friend, -1 for enemy). However, ARZ employs multi-layered matrices with zone-specific weightings and transition probabilities, allowing modeling of relational inertia, zone volatility, and cross-zone dynamics. For instance, a green-zone tie might erode toward yellow under repeated unmet expectations, or a yellow-zone tie might strategically mimic green-zone signals for manipulative advantage---events that require longitudinal data modeling and state-transition logic beyond conventional SNA.

Furthermore, the adaptive nature of ARZ incorporates agent-specific perception matrices, meaning each individual perceives and zones others differently, based on past interaction, social cognition, and anticipated risk. This personalization of sociometric data reflects real-world complexity, where relational judgments are subjective, history-dependent, and prone to cognitive bias. It also allows for asymmetric ties, where A may place B in the green zone while B sees A as red---an essential feature of conflict-prone, high-stakes environments.

From a methodological standpoint, ARZ proposes a fusion between:

Graph theory (for structure),
Bayesian updating (for belief revision),
Markov modeling (for zone transition dynamics), and
Sentiment-weighted edges (for emotional memory encoding).
These tools enable researchers to simulate and analyze network-level consequences of individual zoning, such as:

The fragility of trust clusters,
The spread of betrayal signals,
The emergence of manipulative hubs (yellow-red agents with high out-degree),
And the resilience of white-green subnetworks under systemic stress.
Empirically, ARZ enables data-driven social diagnostics. By mapping relational histories into zone-coded interactions (e.g., using conversational logs, behavioral tagging, or self-report mapping), researchers can build zone trajectory plots for individuals or groups, yielding insight into relational entropy, social health, and strategic convergence or divergence within networks.

Thus, ARZ advances sociometric theory by integrating adaptive emotional intelligence, strategic maneuvering, and moral gradation into network modeling. It transforms the idea of "relationship" from a static descriptor into a strategic, affect-laden, evolving system of meaning and utility---quantifiable, mappable, and responsive to both external stimuli and internal thresholds.

D. Mathematical Sociology and Bounded Rationality (Herbert Simon)

The Adaptive Relational Zoning (ARZ) framework is also deeply informed by insights from mathematical sociology and the concept of bounded rationality, pioneered by Herbert Simon. These foundations allow ARZ to formalize how individuals navigate complex social environments not with perfect rationality, but with satisficing heuristics, emotional residues, and adaptive memory---all within a cognitively limited, resource-constrained framework.

In mathematical sociology, social behavior is often represented through systems of equations, matrices, and probabilistic models to capture structured patterns in human interaction. ARZ builds on this by modeling interpersonal relations as multi-variable functions involving:

Perceived trust,
Strategic utility,
Historical betrayal coefficients,
Emotional cost functions,
And real-time interaction feedback loops.
Instead of assuming that agents always maximize utility, ARZ posits that actors operate under bounded rationality: they make decisions based on limited information, selective memory, and emotional-cognitive filters that guide them toward "good enough" rather than "optimal" relational strategies. This means that zoning decisions (e.g., whether to classify someone as green or yellow) are rarely binary or absolute---they are adaptive approximations, influenced by mood, context, fatigue, and past trauma.

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