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Adaptive Relational Zoning: a CAS Framework for Modelling Strategic Social Interaction

13 Juni 2025   13:09 Diperbarui: 13 Juni 2025   19:29 370
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One of the central insights from this field is that relational dynamics are best understood as emergent phenomena arising from local interactions, memory effects, and recursive feedback loops. This perspective aligns closely with the Adaptive Relational Zoning (ARZ) framework proposed here, which models social actors as navigating multiple relational zones---each with evolving weights, context-sensitive thresholds, and strategic implications. Computational social science supports such granular modeling by offering techniques like agent-based modeling, network analysis, and adaptive rule-based systems, which can simulate individual and collective behavior over time under varying conditions of uncertainty, stress, and strategic maneuvering.

Moreover, empirical studies in this domain increasingly rely on real-time behavioral data (e.g., digital communication, organizational email traffic, geolocation proximity, and transaction networks) to trace how relationships are formed, tested, and reclassified in response to external events and internal emotional shifts (Pentland, 2014; Eagle et al., 2009). These data-rich environments require formalizable frameworks that can integrate multidimensional inputs---such as betrayal signals, reciprocity indexes, and affective sentiment---into computable decision variables. The ARZ model is particularly well-suited to this task, as it proposes a six-zone structure with relational weights, interaction coefficients, and strategic tolerances, all of which are expressible in both qualitative typologies and quantitative matrices.

Furthermore, the complexity of modern relational environments---ranging from decentralized organizations to algorithmically mediated interactions---demands adaptive models that are sensitive to scale, hierarchy, and phase transitions. The ARZ framework, with its origins in complex adaptive systems theory, provides a structured yet flexible approach to relational modeling that can be embedded in multi-agent simulations, used in organizational diagnostics, or applied to real-time AI-human interaction frameworks. Its design not only facilitates computational tractability, but also theoretical elegance, offering a bridge between empirical data and high-level abstraction.

In sum, the methodological imperatives of computational social science underscore the urgency and applicability of formal models like ARZ. They affirm the need for nuanced, quantifiable frameworks that recognize relational states as multi-zonal, memory-sensitive, and strategically contingent---an approach well-aligned with emerging paradigms in AI ethics, organizational intelligence, and human-centered computing.

3. Theoretical Foundations

A. Complex Adaptive Systems (Holland, 1992): Individuals as Adaptive Agents with Memory and Strategic Learning

The Adaptive Relational Zoning (ARZ) framework is fundamentally grounded in the paradigm of Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS), as articulated by Holland (1992) and further developed across disciplines including ecology, economics, and artificial intelligence. CAS theory conceptualizes systems as composed of numerous interacting agents who adapt their behavior over time based on memory, feedback, and evolving internal rules. In social environments, these agents are individuals whose relational behaviors are shaped by prior interactions, observed patterns, and anticipatory strategy.

In CAS, agents are not governed by fixed roles or deterministic scripts. Instead, they engage in context-sensitive learning, altering their decision rules through strategic feedback loops informed by the consequences of past interactions. This dynamic and decentralized model mirrors real-world social relationships, where trust, reciprocity, and betrayal are not static traits, but emergent properties resulting from iterative encounters and evolving mutual perceptions.

The ARZ model leverages this CAS perspective by framing individuals as agents navigating six relational zones---white, green, yellow, red, black, and jernih (neutral)---each with its own adaptive threshold, strategic implications, and social memory weight. Agents may shift zones in response to perceived changes in relational value, intent, or affective resonance. Such transitions are neither linear nor symmetrical; an agent's movement from a green zone to yellow, or from red to clear, may depend on accumulated trust deficits, emotional cues, or strategic recalibrations, akin to phase transitions in physical systems.

Furthermore, CAS highlights nonlinear dynamics and sensitivity to initial conditions, which are crucial in understanding why similar relational histories can lead to divergent outcomes. Small misalignments in expectations or misinterpretations of behavior can catalyze disproportionate relational shifts---a phenomenon observed in political diplomacy, workplace alliances, and intimate relationships alike. ARZ models such sensitivities by incorporating weighted variables and memory functions, enabling it to represent both gradual trust accumulation and sudden betrayal ruptures.

In addition, agents in CAS frameworks often develop meta-strategies---rules about when to switch strategies---which aligns with ARZ's tactical layer, where individuals may choose to remain in a zone for strategic reasons even when emotional or moral intuition suggests otherwise. For instance, an actor may continue to engage with a "yellow-zone" individual not out of trust, but due to instrumental utility, thereby reflecting a multilevel adaptiveness consistent with both CAS theory and real-world behavior.

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