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Relational Zone Economics: Toward a Complex Adaptive Theory of Strategic Human Interaction in Economics System

25 Juni 2025   21:07 Diperbarui: 25 Juni 2025   21:07 335
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The fluid movement of agents across trust zones based on historical interactions, perceived intentions, and adaptive feedback;
The probabilistic resilience of community norms based on the density of Green or Clear-zone relations in a network;
The emergence of self-organized governance as a function of zone convergence among key stakeholders.
In essence, while Ostrom empirically mapped how communities manage the commons, we offer a formal dynamic engine to simulate and analyze such processes under various stressors, incentive structures, and emotional conditions. This adds predictive and explanatory power to collective governance theories, making them more suitable for integration into computational, agent-based, and AI-driven economic models.

2. Empirical Gaps in Mainstream Economic Models

A. Limitations of Payoff-Centric Logic in Explaining Real-World Economic Behavior

Despite the rigorous mathematical formulation and internal coherence of classical and behavioral economic models, a significant empirical gap persists in explaining the fluid, trust-dependent dynamics of real-world economic interactions. Traditional models, whether built on Nash equilibrium, utility maximization, or bounded rationality, overwhelmingly rely on the assumption that agents respond to tangible payoffs, past outcomes, or rational biases. However, a wide range of economically significant phenomena defy such limited frames.

1. Inter-firm Trust and Informal Cooperation
 In numerous business ecosystems---such as informal supplier networks in developing countries, B2B trust-building in high-tech sectors, or long-term partnerships in creative industries---economic actors invest in trust without immediate payoff guarantees. The absence of enforceable contracts does not always lead to opportunism. Rather, relationships often persist or flourish based on relational memory, moral signaling, or latent reciprocity expectations that are not readily reducible to payoff matrices.

2. Consumer Loyalty and Brand Attachment
 Consumers frequently remain loyal to brands even when better deals or superior products are available. Behavioral economics may explain this with concepts like status quo bias or habit formation. However, deeper analysis reveals that emotional resonance, perceived authenticity, and shared values play crucial roles---dimensions that require a relational and temporal model of interaction, not merely a recalibration of utility curves.

3. Trade Wars and Geoeconomic Tensions
 Modern economic conflicts---such as tariff escalations, boycotts, and tech decoupling---often arise not purely from rational self-interest but from perceived betrayal, identity defense, or non-economic strategic signaling. Game-theoretic models of repeated interactions cannot fully account for the rapid escalation or sudden reconciliation driven by relational thresholds being crossed. These events reveal that actors---be they nations or corporations---operate not just on incentive responsiveness, but within dynamic relational zones that condition the interpretation of others' actions.

4. Labor Relations and Organizational Culture
 Trust and conflict within companies---between management and labor unions, for instance---frequently swing between cooperation and antagonism in ways that standard contract theory or agency models cannot simulate. Here, emotional trust, betrayal narratives, and historical grievances matter as much as economic incentives. These dynamics call for a multi-zone model of interaction that evolves over time and incorporates memory, adaptation, and emotional calibration.

In all these cases, the shortfall of payoff-centric logic is not merely theoretical; it has practical consequences in the misprediction of economic behavior, failed policy interventions, and underappreciated strategic leverage points in economic diplomacy or market regulation.

Our proposed framework---Relational Zone Economics (RZE)---addresses these gaps by providing a mathematically formal yet behaviorally rich model that treats trust, ambiguity, betrayal, and loyalty not as anomalies or externalities, but as core structural components of economic systems. This reframing enables better simulation, diagnosis, and intervention in complex, high-stakes, and emotionally laden economic environments.

B. Long-Term Projects and the Limits of Linear, Transparent Rationality

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