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Relational Zone Economics: Toward a Complex Adaptive Theory of Strategic Human Interaction in Economics System

25 Juni 2025   21:07 Diperbarui: 25 Juni 2025   21:07 335
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C. Daniel Kahneman & Richard Thaler (Behavioral Economics) --- Recognition of Biases, Yet Absence of Systemic Relational Framework

The rise of behavioral economics, as pioneered by Daniel Kahneman, Amos Tversky, and later expanded by Richard Thaler, marked a profound shift from the classical assumption of rational agents toward psychologically grounded models of decision-making. These contributions---recognized by the Nobel Prizes in 2002 (Kahneman) and 2017 (Thaler)---demonstrated that human choices are often guided by heuristics, cognitive biases, framing effects, loss aversion, and mental accounting.

This body of work compellingly challenged the homo economicus model, introducing richer accounts of individual behavior. However, despite these advances, behavioral economics largely remains intra-individual, focusing on decision distortions rather than interactional dynamics. Specifically:

Bias cataloging (e.g., anchoring, availability heuristic, endowment effect) lacks integration into a relational or systemic model that accounts for reciprocal adaptation over time.
While social preferences (e.g., fairness, altruism, reciprocity) are acknowledged, they are typically studied through isolated experiments or context-free games, not embedded in evolving relational trajectories.
Thaler's concept of "nudging" offers mechanisms for behavioral steering but operates asymmetric relationally, privileging the architect of choice rather than modeling mutual adaptation within dynamic systems.
Most critically, behavioral economics, though descriptive, does not offer a formal model of how relational trust erodes, shifts, or strengthens through feedback, ambiguity, or betrayal. It fails to formalize:

How short-term betrayal can lead to long-term strategic withdrawal (e.g., from "Green" to "Black" zone),
How signals of regret or reform might gradually rebuild damaged trust (e.g., "Red" to "Yellow" transitions),
How economic actors navigate conflicting frames (rational vs. emotional) when confronted with complex interdependencies.
The Relational Zone Economics (RZE) framework addresses this absence by modeling the economy not merely as a domain of biased decisions, but as a relationally adaptive ecosystem---where trust, fear, hope, and intent interact with material incentives. By formally incorporating emotional memory, relational thresholds, and multi-zonal interaction scores, our framework enables longitudinal modeling of economic actors as semi-rational, emotionally sensitive, and adaptively strategic agents.

This opens a new paradigm: from the static correction of bias toward the dynamic orchestration of relationships across shifting zones of alignment, divergence, and transformation.

D. Elinor Ostrom (Collective Governance) --- Recognition of Norms and Communities, Yet Lacking Formalization into Dynamic Zones

Elinor Ostrom's groundbreaking work on common-pool resources (CPR) challenged the long-dominant assumptions of both the "tragedy of the commons" and top-down governmental control. Her Nobel-winning contributions (2009) demonstrated that local communities are often capable of sustainably managing shared resources through self-organized governance, grounded in norms, trust, monitoring, and graduated sanctions.

Ostrom's design principles for long-enduring institutions (e.g., clear boundaries, participatory rule-making, nested governance, and conflict resolution mechanisms) provided compelling empirical evidence that human cooperation can emerge outside the market-state dichotomy. However, her framework, though deeply insightful, remains largely qualitative and institutional in form. Specifically:

Dynamic transitions between cooperative states (e.g., trust to distrust, sanction to reintegration) are not formalized in a continuous model of interactional adaptation.
The emergence of trust or decay of norms over time is discussed descriptively, without a mathematical model capable of simulating relational transformations across multiple agents or communities.
Although Ostrom implicitly captures relational complexity, she does not offer a formal scoring mechanism for differentiating between degrees of trust, betrayal, or restorative potential among actors.
Moreover, her framework lacks tools to analyze strategic ambiguity, emotional friction, and nonlinear shifts in group dynamics that often determine the success or failure of governance in high-stakes, rapidly changing environments---such as those characterized by climate pressure, digital platforms, or post-conflict economic zones.

Our proposed Relational Zone Economics (RZE) framework advances Ostrom's legacy by providing a formal, dynamic, and quantifiable model for relational trust and strategic adaptation. Through the delineation of six zones---White (naive trust), Green (mature trust), Yellow (caution), Red (conflict), Black (hostility), and Clear (transcendent cooperation)---we can model:

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