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Relational Zone Economics: Toward a Complex Adaptive Theory of Strategic Human Interaction in Economics System

25 Juni 2025   21:07 Diperbarui: 25 Juni 2025   21:07 335
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John Nash's 1950 formulation of Nash Equilibrium, for which he received the Nobel Prize in 1994, has become a cornerstone of game theory and modern microeconomic analysis. The concept defines a set of strategies where no player has anything to gain by unilaterally deviating, assuming the strategies of others remain fixed.

While elegant and mathematically tractable, Nash Equilibrium rests on a critical set of assumptions:

Perfect rationality of agents,
Common knowledge of rationality,
Static interaction framework, and
Utility maximization based solely on immediate payoff structures.
These assumptions, while useful for modeling stylized economic games (e.g., Cournot competition or Prisoner's Dilemma), abstract away from:

Temporal evolution of relational memory,
Perceived intention shifts,
Asymmetries in emotional stakes, and
Strategic ambiguity, which often dominate real-world interactions such as employer-employee negotiations, political-economic bargaining, or long-term investment partnerships.
In contrast, our RZE framework models not only the action and payoff structure but the quality and zone of relational positioning, enabling agents to evolve from adversarial to collaborative (or vice versa) based on non-payoff-based variables such as perceived betrayal, long-term intention, and relational residue from past encounters.

Thus, while Nash Equilibrium provides a valuable baseline for strategic stability, it lacks mechanisms to represent relational dynamics, adaptability under ambiguity, and strategic identity shifts over time.

B. Robert Aumann (Repeated Games) --- Emphasis on Patience and Reputation, Yet Constrained by Historical Payoffs

Robert Aumann's seminal work on repeated games and correlated equilibrium, for which he was awarded the Nobel Prize in 2005, extended the analytical horizon of game theory beyond single-shot interactions. Aumann demonstrated that cooperation can be sustained in the long run through repeated play, where reputation and threat of future retaliation (or reward) govern strategic behavior. This was a critical advancement in understanding the incentive compatibility of cooperation under rational expectations.

However, the foundation of Aumann's theory still adheres strictly to past payoff structures and belief consistency, assuming that:

Players possess common knowledge of the game structure and discount factors,
Reputational effects are calculable and strategically exploited,
Agents act under rational foresight, even when considering infinite horizons or discounting mechanisms.
While Aumann's repeated game framework does introduce temporality into game-theoretic reasoning, it under-theorizes the emotional, psychological, and semiotic dimensions of relational interaction. For example:

Shifts in perception of betrayal or intention are not easily reducible to changes in payoff or signal interpretation.
Adaptive learning through relational experiences is modeled via Bayesian updating but lacks zone transitions that mark fundamental relational reclassification (e.g., from trust-based to fear-based interaction).
The persistence of emotional memory and non-linear forgiveness thresholds are beyond the scope of formal equilibrium reasoning in repeated games.
In contrast, the Relational Zone Economics (RZE) framework we propose introduces multi-dimensional adaptive states, such as the transition from "Yellow" (uncertain vigilance) to "Red" (protectionist or retaliatory mode), based on cumulative variables like perceived respect, consistency of narrative alignment, or strategic silence---none of which are captured in standard repeated games.

Hence, although Aumann's framework elegantly models strategic foresight under repeated interaction, it remains insufficiently relational, insensitive to dynamic re-categorization, and agnostic to the emotional-subjective ecosystem that frequently underlies economic coordination in families, firms, and institutions.

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