Dari Gencatan Senjata ke Kekacauan: Mengkaji Risiko Perang Saudara di Gaza Pasca-2025 di Bawah Mediasi AS

 

Faktor Pendukung Chaos: 

Ekonomi Gaza hancur (biaya perang capai miliaran), pengungsi balik ke "unrecognisable" kota, dan tanpa rekonsiliasi, "shabab" PA bisa clash dengan Hamas atas sumber daya.

Implikasi dan Rekomendasi

Secara ilmiah, ceasefire Gaza 2025 adalah breakthrough, tapi risiko "awal kehancuran" tinggi jika ikuti pola Irak/Libya: Vakum kekuasaan, fragmentasi faksi, dan intervensi eksternal tanpa inklusi lokal. 

Untuk hindari perang saudara, butuh rekonsiliasi Palestina (Hamas-PA), dukungan internasional netral (bukan hegemoni AS), dan fokus ke institusi nasional---bukan "nasionalisme dangkal". 

Rekomendasi dari analis: Mulai dengan pemilu Palestina unified dan monitoring UN.

References

• Al Jazeera. (2025, October). Gaza ceasefire: Challenges and dynamics post-war. Retrieved from https://www.aljazeera.com
• Atlantic Council. (2023). Lessons from U.S. interventions in the Middle East. Retrieved from https://www.atlanticcouncil.org
• Belfer Center. (2021). The economic and human cost of the Iraq War. Harvard Kennedy School. Retrieved from https://www.belfercenter.org
• Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). (2025). Post-conflict reconstruction: A global perspective. Retrieved from https://www.csis.org
• European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR). (2025, October 12). Ceasefire in Gaza: A fragile peace?. Retrieved from https://ecfr.eu
• International Crisis Group. (2022). Libya's fractured state: Lessons from 2011. Retrieved from https://www.crisisgroup.org
• Middle East Forum. (2025, October 10). Hamas survival and internal Palestinian risks. Retrieved from https://www.meforum.org
• New York Times. (2025, October 13). Political fragmentation in Palestine post-ceasefire. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com
• NPR. (2025, October 14). Global political hotspots: Gaza to Cameroon. Retrieved from https://www.npr.org
• Reuters. (2025, October 11). Trump-mediated Gaza ceasefire: Sandera released. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com
• The Cradle. (2025, October). Risk of civil conflict in Gaza post-ceasefire. Retrieved from https://thecradle.co
• The New Yorker. (2025, October 9). Hamas resilience amid Gaza war. Retrieved from https://www.newyorker.com
• U.S. Army War College. (2021). Afghanistan: Why nation-building failed. Retrieved from https://www.armywarcollege.edu
• Wilson Center. (2025). Gaza war and global implications. Retrieved from https://www.wilsoncenter.org