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Evolution as Complex Adaptive System: a Mathematical Framework

18 September 2025   20:30 Diperbarui: 18 September 2025   20:30 49
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Evolutionary change is never unconstrained; organisms face trade-offs that limit the extent of trait optimization, while ecological feedbacks drive arms-race dynamics known as the Red Queen. The CAS framework naturally integrates both, demonstrating how constraints and perpetual adaptation emerge from the same system-level interactions.

1. Trade-offs as Cost Functions in CAS

In traditional models, trade-offs are often imposed externally, e.g., a fixed curve between speed and stamina. CAS formalism, however, derives trade-offs as emergent properties of pleiotropy and energy constraints. For the peregrine falcon, respiratory efficiency (T2T_2T2) and neuromuscular precision (T3T_3T3) both demand high metabolic investment, such that maximizing one reduces the effective benefit of the other unless balanced. Similarly, wing morphology (T4T_4T4) exhibits a parabolic optimum: wings too long increase lift but reduce maneuverability, while wings too short reduce dive speed. These nonlinear costs define the shape of attractor basins, constraining evolutionary trajectories.

2. Red Queen Dynamics as Eco-Evolutionary Feedback

The CAS framework embeds predator--prey coevolution within coupled differential equations. In this context, prey adaptation (increased evasiveness or speed) reshapes the predator's fitness landscape in real time, pushing predator populations out of equilibrium. The result is a Red Queen cycle: each side must continually adapt merely to maintain relative performance. Analytical and simulation results showed oscillatory dynamics, with predator traits lagging behind prey traits in a consistent phase offset, confirming the feedback-loop nature of this process.

3. Unified Dynamics: Constraints Within Oscillations

Critically, trade-offs and Red Queen cycles are not independent phenomena but two expressions of the same CAS structure:

Trade-offs define the curvature of the fitness landscape, limiting the range of viable adaptations.
Red Queen dynamics reflect continual shifts of this landscape due to reciprocal adaptation.
Together, they create evolutionary trajectories where populations circle around moving attractors rather than marching toward open-ended optimization. For peregrines, this explains why their morphology and physiology are highly optimized yet bounded: the bird is not infinitely fast or powerful, but balanced at a sustainable attractor that is continually perturbed by prey evolution.
4. Broader Implications

By formalizing trade-offs and arms races within a unified CAS framework, we move beyond piecemeal explanations. The Red Queen becomes not merely a metaphor but a mathematically grounded dynamic; trade-offs become not arbitrary assumptions but emergent constraints. This synthesis provides a deeper account of why certain adaptations, such as the peregrine's stooping design, are both highly specialized and evolutionarily persistent: they occupy attractors that balance costs with perpetual ecological pressures.

D. Implications for Broader Evolutionary Theory

The CAS framework extends beyond the peregrine falcon to address foundational questions in evolutionary biology. By modeling evolution as a system of emergent attractors shaped by genetic interactions, ecological feedback, and trade-offs, it provides a more comprehensive theoretical architecture that bridges multiple schools of thought.

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