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Aditya Hera Nurmoko
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Examining Possible Scenarios of the Ukraine-Russia Conflict and The Threat of Nuclear War

25 Maret 2023   15:41 Diperbarui: 25 Maret 2023   15:53 272
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By : Aditya Hera Nurmoko

Escalating Ukraine-Russia Conflict Tensions Raise Concerns

The Ukraine-Russia conflict has been going on for more than a year, and tensions between the two countries have continued to escalate in recent months.  This situation raises international concern, especially with the possibility of a greater escalation of the conflict and even towards a nuclear war.  This conflict has the potential to trigger a war on a large scale and pose a security threat to the world. In other words, "Like a rock dropped into a lake, this conflict has the potential to cause huge ripples and destabilize the world."  Threats to the world economy are also increasingly real "such as strong winds that hit the sea" in the form of energy crises, inflation and poverty. The current state of the Ukraine-Russia conflict is even  like "Calm water washes away, murky water exposes the bottom" which illustrates that in a conflict situation like the one between Ukraine and Russia today, uncertainty and confusion arise as both sides seek to reveal the truth behind their accusations and attacks.

There are several possible scenarios in the Ukraine-Russia conflict.  If Russia wins the war, then Ukraine is likely to become a vassal territory of Russia. However, if it is Ukraine that wins the war, they can maintain their independence and strengthen relations with the West. There is also the possibility of the conflict ending peacefully, where political and diplomatic negotiations will be conducted to reach a solution acceptable to both sides. But the peaceful option seems 'there is still  a lot of water flowing into the hillir before it is finished' or 'there is still a long way to go before reaching the destination'.

However, regardless of the possible outcome in the Ukraine-Russia conflict, there is a possibility of nuclear war. Conditions that could trigger nuclear war include the use of nuclear weapons or the threat of their use, or errors occurring in communication and coordination systems. We should all realize that nuclear war will have very serious and dangerous consequences for the whole world. Therefore, measures should be taken to prevent the escalation of the conflict and promote political and diplomatic negotiations to achieve long-term peace and stability.

In dealing with this situation, the active role of the international community is crucial. Each side must take appropriate and responsible measures to prevent a larger conflict, including nuclear war. Only with joint efforts can we create a safe and peaceful world for everyone.

The year 2014 became the starting point of the Ukraine-Russia conflict that has been going on for years. After experiencing the revolution, Ukraine asserted its sovereignty by choosing to join the European Union and rejecting closer ties with Russia. This angered Russia, which felt threatened by Ukraine's pro-Western foreign policy. Russia responded by occupying Crimea and supporting pro-Russian rebels in eastern Ukraine.

Tensions between Ukraine and Russia have continued to rise ever since, with the conflict still ongoing. While Ukraine struggles to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity, Russia has stepped up efforts to expand its influence in the region. In this situation, many fear that an escalation of the conflict could lead to greater threats, including nuclear war. The purpose of this article is to examine possible conflict scenarios and the threat of nuclear war that could occur in the Ukraine-Russia conflict.

The narrative of the Ukraine-Russia conflict that has taken place to this day

Here are some narrative points of the Ukraine-Russia conflict to this day:

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