Walking the Tightrope, Not Just Grass to Be Trampled

• (Or how Southeast Asia refuses to be a mere pawn in the great power game)

  At the end of the Cold War, Francis Fukuyama famously declared The End of History, arguing that liberal democracy had triumphed and would become the inevitable endpoint of human political evolution. But in Southeast Asia, history is far from over, it has simply become more complex, more fluid, and, for those who know how to play the game, more rewarding.

  Bilahari Kausikan's report on U.S. policy in Southeast Asia highlights an essential truth: ASEAN is not just a passive arena for great power competition. It is an active player that skillfully maneuvers between the U.S. and China to maximize its own interests. This is not about choosing sides; it's about creating strategic space to remain sovereign, independent, and free from the coercion of any superpower.

  From U.S. Offshore Balancing to ASEAN's Smart Balancing

  Baca juga: Penari di Atas Tali, Bukan Sekadar Rumput yang Terinjak

  For decades, the U.S. has employed a strategy of offshore balancing in the Indo-Pacific, aiming to maintain stability without direct intervention. As a "balancer from afar," Washington has supported regional allies to counterbalance China's rise. However, this strategy has often been inconsistent:

  On one hand, the U.S. strengthens defense ties with countries like the Philippines, Vietnam, and Singapore.

  On the other, its long-term commitment to the region remains questionable, with shifting foreign policy priorities and internal political turmoil.

  ASEAN, having learned from history, understands that relying too heavily on any single great power is a strategic mistake. Thus, it has developed a more sophisticated approach: Smart Balancing.

  Baca juga: Emas, Upeti, dan Para Penjaga Sunyi di Ramadhan

  Engage China economically, but avoid dependency that could lead to political control.

  Baca juga: tanah berpuasa, kekuasaan rakus tanpa batas

  Maintain defense ties with the U.S., but without becoming entangled in conflicts that don't serve ASEAN's interests.

  Diversify partnerships with Japan, India, the EU, and middle powers to ensure multiple strategic options.