The U.S. keeps asking: "Why won't ASEAN fully align with us?"
Perhaps because Washington often underestimates Southeast Asia.
It preaches about a "Free and Open Indo-Pacific" but often fails to deliver consistent economic and security commitments.
It demands alignment, yet provides uncertain long-term support.
It champions democracy, but continues cooperating with authoritarian regimes when it serves its interests.
China, on the other hand, assumes that money can buy everything.
It floods ASEAN with infrastructure investments but underestimates the strength of nationalism in the region.
It believes ASEAN is too small to resist its influence, yet every ASEAN state maintains relations with the U.S. as a counterbalance.
It acts aggressively in the South China Sea, only to push ASEAN nations closer to Washington and its allies.
The Future of ASEAN: From Observer to Architect of Regional Order
Looking ahead, ASEAN must move beyond merely balancing great powers. It must shape the balance itself.
1. Strengthening Collective Security
If the U.S. is unreliable and China is too aggressive, ASEAN must strengthen its own defense mechanisms.
This doesn't mean forming a NATO-like alliance, but improving military interoperability and intelligence-sharing among ASEAN states.
2. Reducing Economic Overdependence
ASEAN must take advantage of de-risking strategies by diversifying trade and investment, particularly with India, the EU, and Japan.
No single country whether China or the U.S. should hold ASEAN hostage through economic leverage.