Build a real-time dashboard that maps data to model variables and policy levers:
Trust indicator TtT_t: daily sentiment/poll composite (0--1).
Economic stress EtE_t: food CPI, real wage index, unemployment claims (normalized).
Protest intensity PtP_t: event counts, estimated crowd sizes, geospatial spread index.
Black-horse index HtH_t: composite of follower growth, mention velocity, fundraising spikes.
Policy response metrics: UtU_t execution rate (% of committed funds disbursed), Kt\mathcal{K}_t deployment intensity (proportion of security forces deployed, curfew counts).
Derived alarms: r-index r^t=^K/^U\hat r_t = \hat\rho_{\mathcal{K}} / \hat\rho_U, EWI, MFPT estimates.
Decision rules then map dashboard values to pre-specified actions (e.g., when r^t>rc\hat r_t>r_c AND EWI>threshold accelerate U by factor & pause large deployments).
6. Examples of policy parameter targets (illustrative)
Aim to keep r^t<0.9\hat r_t < 0.9 (accommodation tempo coercion tempo).
Reduce E by X% within 30 days (target chosen based on calibration; e.g., reduce foremost food-price inflation component by 1--2 percentage points).
Raise T to >0.55 within 60 days via credible actions and communications.
These numeric targets must be calibrated to local data and operational capacity.
7. Ethical considerations
Forecasts and tactical interventions must prioritize de-escalation, protection of civil liberties, and non-criminalization of dissent.
Use actor attribution outputs (from HH-mapping) only for engagement and monitoring, not for pre-emptive suppression.
Ensure independent oversight of investigations and of any security measures to prevent legitimacy collapse.
8. Closing synthesis
Communication, economic policy, and political legitimacy form a coupled control system. In the mathematical model they jointly determine the system's proximity to bifurcation (through effects on T,E,P,HT, E, P, H and on responsiveness parameters U,K\rho_U,\rho_{\mathcal{K}}). The operational prescription is clear:
act fast, but act credibly;
prioritize targeted relief and procedural justice over sweeping repression;
maintain a real-time diagnostics loop that updates policy responsiveness and risk metrics.
If implemented in this coordinated fashion, these levers can move the polity away from the dangerous high-PP, low-TT attractor and restore a path toward managed recovery.
D. Long-term Institutional Resilience Framework
Long-term resilience is about changing the basin geometry of the socio-political system so that shocks---economic, informational, or political---are absorbed rather than amplified. Operationally, that means structurally altering the model parameters and feedback loops (raising damping, lowering gains on reinforcing loops, shortening delays) so the stable, low-unrest attractor is larger and more robust. Below is a compact, actionable resilience framework linking institutional reforms to model mechanisms, concrete policies, monitoring metrics, and an implementation roadmap.
1. Conceptual goal (model language)
