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Ray K
Ray K Mohon Tunggu...

I am trying to be an economist who is able to improve global economic




The Forecast of Global Economic Growth and Global Unemployment

21 Januari 2015   15:33 Diperbarui: 17 Juni 2015   12:41 16 0 0 Mohon Tunggu...

The topic of global economic growth and global unemployment has been being main concern of the public nowadays. Since the global financial crisis hit some countries, the global economic are still in recovery phase. Some countries are still trying to find out the best solution to improve their economic. The IMF and the World Bank, cited from, have revised the prediction of economic growth in the 2015 and a year later to lower than the prior prediction. So does with the unemployment rate, cited from, ILO predicted the global unemployment will rise in next five years.

To begin, the IMF has lowered the global economic prediction to 3.5% this year compared to the prior estimation which was announced in October at 3.8%. The prediction of global economic growth is still higher than global economic growth in 2014 at 3.3%. Meanwhile, the IMF also predicted the global economic growth in 2016 at 3.7%, lower 0.3% than the prior prediction. In accordance to the IMF, the World Bank also predicted the global economic growth is lower than its initial prediction. The World Bank is predicting the global economic growth in 2015 and 2016 at 3% and 3.3% respectively or lower by 0.4% and 0.2% respectively than initial prediction which was announced in June 2014.

In contrast, the economy growth in emerging market and developing economies in this year is predicted to lower by 0.1% than a year earlier at 4.4%. In 2016, the economy growth in emerging market and developing economies is predicted to increase by 0.4% from the prediction of economy growth in 2015. China’s economy growth in 2014 was at 7.4 lower than a year earlier at 7.7%. The economy growth of China in 2015 and 2016 is predicted to remain falling to 6.8% and 6.3% respectively. While the economy of the countries in the eurozone is generally predicted that may grow to 1.2% in this year and slightly increase to 1.4% in 2016. Although the global oil price has been declining significantly in past few months, which is believed that it can boost the global economy, it still cannot lift the global economy. Consequently, the negative impacts of the lower economy growth are less opportunity to sell goods and services, and less incentive to invest worldwide.

The unemployment rate also has a close relationship to the economy growth. The unemployment rate in 2015 is predicted increasing by 3 million people. To cope with the unemployment rate, it needs to add the number of job fields about 280 millions job field until 2019. ILO announced the prediction of unemployment rate following the announcement of global economic growth of IMF. The low in investment rate has been alleged as the main cause of the rising of the unemployment rate.

To sum up, based on prediction of the IMF, the World Bank, and the ILO, the economy and the unemployment remain growing slightly in 2015. The sluggish investment still becomes the main cause of the low economy growth and high unemployment rate. The price of global oil is predicted to remain falling until second semester of 2015, but it is still not enough to boost the global economic growth. Thus it is required good cooperation among countries to accelerate global economic growth.