1). Unification of Crimea with Russia: In March 2014, Russian forces took over the Crimean peninsula from Ukraine and held a referendum declaring Crimea's unification with Russia. The move was condemned by many countries and considered a violation of international law.
2). Revolt in Donbass: After the conquest of Crimea, Russia supported the uprising in the Donbass region of Eastern Ukraine. These rebels complained of discrimination against Russians in Ukraine and demanded greater autonomy or even independence. Ukraine accuses Russia of supporting the uprising by providing weapons, manpower and financial support.
3). International sanctions against Russia: In response to Russia's actions in Ukraine, many countries and international organizations imposed economic sanctions on Russia. These sanctions include travel bans, asset freezes, and trade restrictions.
4). Minsk Agreements: In September 2014, a peace agreement was concluded through negotiations between the Ukrainian government and rebels in Donbass under the help of Russia, France and Germany. The agreement establishes a ceasefire and provides for the restoration of Ukrainian control over the border in the Donbass region. However, this agreement has not yet been fully implemented.
5). Escalation of the conflict: Despite the agreed ceasefire, the conflict between Ukraine and the rebels continues, with ongoing gun attacks in the Donbass region. There have also been reports of the presence of Russian troops in the region.
6). Peace negotiations: Although the conflict still continues, efforts to achieve peace are ongoing. In February 2015, negotiations between the Ukrainian government and rebels were held in Minsk, Belarus. However, despite some agreements being reached, the conflict still continues and it is difficult to end it completely.
7). Current situation: The Ukraine-Russia conflict still continues to this day, despite several attempts to achieve peace. Ukraine continues to have support from the West and NATO, while Russia continues to support rebels in Donbass. Finally, in March 2021, the crisis flared up again when Russian troops massed around Ukraine's border, sparking fears of a larger escalation of the conflict.
Ukraine-Russia Conflict Scenario
There are several possible scenarios in the Ukraine-Russia conflict. One of them was the Russian victory, where Russia managed to take control of Ukrainian territory and integrate it into Russian territory. This scenario could trigger a larger conflict between Russia and Western countries, including NATO. Possible consequences include tougher international sanctions and Russia's isolation in the international arena.
Whatare the possible scenarios in the Ukraine-Russia conflict:
1). If Russia wins the war, it is very likely that Ukraine will become a vassal territory of Russia. This could lead to a strengthening of Russia's position in the region, but it could also provoke further conflict with the West.
