Brazil, Indonesia, and the Big Homework Ahead of COP30

As the world looks to Belém, Brazil, where COP30 will be held in 2025, two giant tropical countries, Brazil and Indonesia, take centre stage. Torry Kuswardono's article in the Jakarta Post rightly highlights the credibility gap between promise and reality in both countries' climate policies. He writes clearly about the challenges of deforestation, the role of indigenous peoples, and the inconsistency of national policies with global ambitions.

However, the piece, while important as a reflection, tends to get stuck in a critique of the old narrative: that Indonesia and Brazil promise too much and do too little. What is missing is a contextual reading of the geopolitical dynamics of the global climate, the economic-ecological relations between developed and developing countries, and the great potential of community-based approaches that have been marginalised. The world demands leadership, but the question is: does it really have the space for it?

What's already Right about Torry's Review

Torry makes a strong case for the limitations of the domestic carbon market and casts doubt on the reliability of the FOLU Net Sink 20230. He is also keen to point out how quickly forests can turn from carbon sinks to sources of emissions as the climate crisis exacerbates droughts and fires. 

More importantly, he voices criticism of "false solutions" such as biomass co-firing and massive energy projects that are often sold as energy transition solutions but actually prolong dependence on dirty energy. He also highlighted that climate credibility is not built on promises, but on the courage to change course. 

But this is where criticism needs to continue. Exposing climate hypocrisy is not enough. We need to analyse why countries like Indonesia and Brazil are often caught between global rhetoric and domestic reality, and how the solutions are not always on the path outlined by donor countries or international agencies.

What Torry's Analysis Missed

1. Entrapment in the Global North Narrative
Torry's writing, like many analyses from the Global South aimed at a global audience, is often under pressure to conform to the framework established by the Global North: net-zero, industrial decarbonisation, carbon policy efficiency. Yet, in many cases, Indonesia and Brazil are not fully in control of their own consumption patterns. Global demand for palm oil, soya, meat, nickel and tropical timber continues to drive land expansion and this is driven by developed markets. 

2. Ignoring Local Progress and Potential
Narratives that focus too much on failure often forget that at the grassroots, indigenous peoples, farming communities and local groups are already practicing authentic models of sustainability. In Kalimantan, Papua and the Amazon, communities are collectively protecting forests, practising agroecology and utilising small-scale renewable energy. But these approaches are rarely considered part of the "mainstream solution" because they do not fit into framework of large project that can be sold as outcomes of international negotiations. 

3. Absence of Emancipatory Roadmaps
What does the world really demand of Brazil and Indonesia? To be the guardians of the forests for the world while remaining poor? Or open alternative development pathways that are ecologically and socially just? Torry offers no political space for developing countries to renegotiate this unequal relationship. In fact, the COP should not only be about reducing emissions, but about historical justice and the right to develop without repeating the same damage that industrialised countries have done before. 

What Can Be Done: The South's Fighting Path