The possibility of a Third World War, although still hypothetical, remains one of the most concerning scenarios in the current global landscape. With escalating geopolitical tensions among major powers such as the United States, China, Russia, and their respective allies, the world is entering a phase of uncertainty. While Indonesia has historically adopted a non-aligned foreign policy and promotes global peace through its "free and active" diplomacy, the interconnectedness of today's world makes it impossible for the country to remain unaffected by such a large-scale conflict. This essay seeks to explore the potential impacts of a Third World War on Indonesia, focusing on the geopolitical, economic, and social dimensions.
1. Geopolitical Implications
Indonesia's strategic location between the Indian and Pacific Oceans and along key maritime trade routes makes it geopolitically significant. In the event of a world war involving major powers, especially those with interests in the Indo-Pacific region, Indonesia could face increased security risks. According to Brewster (2019), the Indo-Pacific has become a central arena for great power competition, particularly between the U.S. and China. If a global conflict erupts, Indonesia may face military pressure to choose sides, potentially undermining its long-standing principle of non-alignment.
Moreover, Indonesia's proximity to flashpoints such as the South China Sea increases the likelihood of being drawn into regional conflicts. The South China Sea dispute, which involves several ASEAN countries and China, could escalate if broader global tensions spiral into military confrontations (Storey, 2018). In such a scenario, Indonesia's maritime security and territorial integrity, especially around the Natuna Islands, could be at risk.
2. Economic Consequences
Indonesia's economy is highly dependent on global trade, with exports of commodities such as palm oil, coal, and natural gas playing a significant role. A Third World War would likely disrupt global supply chains, causing severe economic repercussions for Indonesia. The war could trigger a global recession, devalue Indonesia's currency, and lead to inflation, as seen during previous global crises such as the 2008 financial meltdown (World Bank, 2009).
Additionally, foreign investment, a crucial component of Indonesia's economic development, would decline sharply due to geopolitical uncertainty. According to the Indonesian Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM, 2023), Indonesia's economic growth target heavily relies on foreign direct investment, especially in infrastructure and energy sectors. If global investors withdraw or halt projects due to war-related risks, Indonesia's development trajectory could face serious setbacks.
Energy security is another critical concern. Indonesia still imports significant amounts of oil and other energy resources. A world war could disrupt energy markets, driving up prices and causing energy shortages. The situation would severely affect the transportation, manufacturing, and household sectors, leading to social unrest.
3. Social and Humanitarian Challenges
Beyond geopolitical and economic factors, a Third World War could lead to major social disruptions in Indonesia. Refugee crises, food shortages, and increased unemployment are likely outcomes. As a country with a population exceeding 270 million, Indonesia would face enormous challenges in ensuring food security, especially if agricultural imports are disrupted.
In addition, an influx of refugees from neighboring conflict-affected countries such as the Philippines, Malaysia, or even further afield could strain Indonesia's already limited resources. Historical experience shows that Indonesia has served as a transit or destination country for refugees fleeing conflicts in the Middle East and South Asia (UNHCR, 2022). In a global war, the scale of displacement could be unprecedented, placing additional burdens on Indonesia's social infrastructure.